etymology - What is the origin of the phrase "racing cert"?


I had encountered the phrase, “racing cert”, the other day, and I had to go look it up. The only definition I immediately found was one from UD:



English colloquialism. Born from gambling talk and used to indicate a statistical or logical outcome that appears to be a foregone conclusion.



It seems to be mostly related to horse racing, and used even in news articles as a jargon term (e.g. “Racing cert: The 400-year history of Perth racecourse”), but I had found no confirmation of that definition, nor explanation whence it came from exactly. If it has anything to do with so-called “racing certificates”, I could not even find meaningful explanation as to what that is, especially pertaining to horse racing. In other racing (auto, or sailing, for instance) it appears to be a sort of manifest clearing the participant (car or a boat) for the race after inspection, and for animals it also seemed to include veterinary check up. But I fail to grip how does that imply the “foregone conclusion”.


Note. As of this note, I picked a winner, although I thought all three answers were very helpful in understanding, and I upvoted them all. There are some question still unanswered (When did the meaning of this phrase went from ironic to literal? Are there any other examples of usage of “racing certainty” around 1834 St. Leger Stakes?), and if others add or improve their answers, I might reconsider. but generally, good answers.



Answer



Racing cert is from racing certainty and was once used literally when talking about horse racing but has since changed so it can be used to describe any (particularly sporting) dead cert.


Racing certainty


I found an antedating to the OED's 1859 of racing certainty, in The Monthly Magazine, Or, British Register, Volume XXIV of October 1837:


If ever there was a racing certainty, it was that, barring accidents, he must win the Leger. He was well, and on the Thursday, at Tattersall's, the last betting day previous to the race, backed at even with the field, when a commission arrived from a ...


This is talking about horse racing.


Racing cert


Racing cert doesn't show up in print until much later, but that doesn't mean people hadn't already been using it in speech for some time. The earliest I found was in a 1920 snippet of St. George's Gazette, Volume 38 (Great Britain. Army. Northumberland Fusiliers):


On the 8th instant our first match against Washington resulted in a goalless draw after a strenuous game at Washington, and it seemed a



On the 8th instant our first match against Washington resulted in a goalless draw after a strenuous game at Washington, and it seemed a "racing cert" on the game at home the following Wednesday, but we also ran, to the tune of being beaten by two goals to nil, our Washington visitors well deserving to win.



This is still sport, although rather than being used literally (about horse racing) it's changed to being used figuratively (about football).


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