word choice - Do "I guess" and "I would say" have the same meaning?


I often read sentences where the idea is "I would say" but it starts with "I guess". For example:




  • I would say he is not coming.

  • I guess he is not coming.



Do both have the same meaning?



Answer



They have only very approximately the same meaning, in that both imply some degree of uncertainty and leave room for others or for facts-on-the-ground to contradict what follows.




  • I would say characterizes what follows as a personal opinion or judgment: From what I know of him I would say he is coming.




  • I guess characterizes what follows as a conjecture or inference: Well, if he were coming he'd be here by now, so I guess he's not coming.




But there's obviously room for some overlap: an opinion may be based on inference, and a conjecture may be based on opinion.


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